Moldova to license grain imports as Ukrainian port attacks threaten exports

grain import licensing agricultural exports Moldovan economy Black Sea ports Ukrainian grain crisis

The Moldovan government is preparing to reintroduce a temporary licensing regime for the import of cereals and oilseeds, effective until October 31. Prime Minister Vasile Tofan described the measure as a necessary step to protect local producers and exporters amidst regional market instability caused by war and logistical difficulties. While intended to support domestic farmers, the policy carries economic risks, including potential price increases for the milling, bakery, livestock, and oil industries, which could impact their competitiveness.

Simultaneously, Ukrainian grain exports face significant threats due to attacks on port infrastructure in the Odesa metropolitan area. These ports typically handle approximately 90% of the country's grain shipments. The disruptions have led to revised export forecasts, with the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture estimating that wheat deliveries for the 2026/27 season could drop to 8.3 million tons from an initial estimate of 17.6 million tons. Oxford Economics reports suggest that prolonged disruptions could lead to a significant reduction in Ukraine's GDP, potentially losing up to 5.3% by 2027.