Moody's shifts Gabon sovereign rating outlook to negative

On 24 June 2026 Moody's kept Gabon's sovereign credit rating at Caa2 but changed the outlook from stable to negative. The agency warned that the country's public debt trajectory, fiscal balance and reliance on oil, manganese and timber revenues could deteriorate over the next 12‑18 months, raising borrowing costs and potentially prompting a further downgrade.

The rating action comes as Gabon, under a transition government that took power in August 2023, pursues a broad fiscal reform programme. Plans include debt‑restructuring, improved tax collection, reduced subsidies and tighter public‑spending oversight. The IMF, World Bank and African Development Bank are monitoring the process. Moody's data show the fiscal deficit projected to fall from 8.5 % of GDP in 2025 to 4.5 % by 2027, indicating gradual consolidation. Nonetheless, the negative outlook signals heightened market scrutiny and could limit institutional investors’ exposure to Gabonese bonds.

The outlook change underscores the challenges faced by resource‑dependent economies in balancing reform, social spending and external debt service amid volatile commodity prices.