Mozambique food insecurity projected to rise 55% by 2027

Acute food insecurity in Mozambique is projected to increase by 55% by March 2027, potentially affecting approximately 1.84 million people. According to an analysis coordinated by the Technical Secretariat for Food and Nutritional Security (SETSAN), this represents a significant rise from the current 1.19 million people facing acute food insecurity.

The deterioration is attributed to several factors, including armed conflict in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, the El Niño weather phenomenon, and the depletion of household food reserves. Projections for the lean season between October 2026 and March 2027 suggest that 254,000 people could enter Phase 4 (Emergency) status, compared to the current 81,000, while 1.58 million are expected to remain in Phase 3 (Crisis).

The analysis covers 46 districts impacted by various shocks, such as floods, the effects of Cyclone Gezani, and ongoing conflict. Vulnerability is expected to be highest in Cabo Delgado and parts of Nampula, as well as in the arid and semi-arid regions of central and southern Mozambique, where El Niño is likely to cause higher temperatures and lower-than-normal rainfall.