National Intelligence Academy analyzes far-right rise in Germany

An analysis published by the National Intelligence Academy, authored by Baki Laleoğlu, examines the rise of the far-right in Germany as a reflection of a deepening structural transformation within the Western world. The study, titled ‘Far-Right in Germany: The Representation Crisis of Liberal Democracy’, argues that the surge is not a cause in itself, but rather a consequence of the weakened capacity of liberal democracies and traditional political actors to provide representation and legitimacy.

The report notes that the rise cannot be explained solely by specific events such as the 2008 economic crisis, the 2015-2016 migration wave, or the COVID-19 pandemic; instead, these crises acted as catalysts that made long-standing structural tensions visible. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that the far-right should not be viewed merely as a marginal deviation based on Nazism, but as part of a historical continuity linked to the ‘Völkisch’ tradition of German nationalism that persisted culturally even after legal suppression post-WWII.

Regarding the Alternative for Germany (AfD), the analysis highlights that the party’s success stems from its ability to transform the far-right's image. By adopting populist and anti-system rhetoric while partially avoiding overt racist symbols, the AfD has reached a broad and heterogeneous voter base. The study concludes that AfD support is not strictly tied to classic economic indicators like unemployment or income inequality, but is instead driven by a perceived sense of relative status loss among various social groups.