Netherlands households see modest income loss from rising energy prices, CPB reports

The Dutch Central Planning Bureau (CPB) found that higher energy and fuel prices stemming from the Middle‑East conflict have a limited effect on most households, reducing disposable income by less than 1 % in the current and next year under normal market expectations. If the conflict prolongs and prices stay high, the impact could rise to about 1 % in 2026 and roughly 2 % in 2027, still well below the circa 4 % median purchasing‑power loss recorded during the 2022 energy crisis.

Households with low to middle incomes that consume more gas and drive longer distances are the most vulnerable, potentially facing a purchasing‑power loss of up to 6 % of disposable income. Ownership of heat pumps and electric cars can lessen this exposure, although such technologies are currently more common among higher‑income families.

The CPB stresses that, while the overall burden remains modest, the timing of fixed‑price contract expirations later this year and in 2027 will expose a larger share of households to elevated tariffs.