Netherlands Defence Ministry warns Russia could launch limited NATO attack within a year

The Dutch Ministry of Defence said Russia may carry out a limited military campaign against a NATO member as early as one year after the war in Ukraine ends. It described Europe as being in a "gray zone" between war and peace and warned that a worst‑case scenario could see a constrained conflict targeting a NATO country.

The warning comes ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara on 7‑8 July, where the Russian threat is expected to be a central topic. NATO Secretary‑General Jens Stoltenberg (as quoted by the ministry) said Russia could be ready to use force against the alliance within five years.

In response, the Netherlands plans to boost defence spending on unmanned systems, aiming to have half of its operational drone capability within five years. The government will set up a "development laboratory" to design and build drones capable of countering other drones, defence minister Dilan Yesilgoz said.