New York Fed study estimates impact of tariffs on goods inflation

A study by economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, including Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein, examines the impact of 2025-2026 tariffs on consumer goods inflation. The researchers concluded that tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to the 12-month change in consumer goods prices by February 2026, noting that goods prices would have otherwise declined slightly.

The study suggests that nearly 90% of the 2025 tariffs were passed through to U.S. import prices almost immediately. The researchers estimate that for every 10% rise in tariff-related import and producer prices, consumer retail prices increase by approximately 5.6%.

Critics of the study argue that the 2.9 percentage point figure applies only to a specific subset of goods rather than overall inflation. They contend that when the estimate is applied to the entire consumer basket, the contribution to overall inflation is significantly lower, approximately 0.6 percentage points. These critics also point out that overall inflation rates actually fell during the period studied.