New Zealand coalition projected to retain 64 seats in Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll

A new Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll indicates that the current governing coalition of National, ACT, and New Zealand First would retain power with 64 of the 120 seats in Parliament. Despite this projected majority, both major parties saw declines in support. National’s party vote fell two percentage points to 29.0%, while Labour dropped 1.9 points to 25.9%, marking its lowest result in this specific poll since 2024.

In contrast, ACT and the Greens saw gains. ACT rose 3.2 points to 10.5%, and the Greens increased by 3.8 points to 13.9%. New Zealand First saw a slight decrease of 0.7 points to 8.4%. The party Opportunity fell to 4.5%, placing it below the 5% threshold required to enter Parliament under the model's assumptions.

Regarding leadership preference, Christopher Luxon maintained a lead over Chris Hipkins, with 21.2% to 16.9%. The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters via phone and online methods.