New Zealand business confidence rises amid easing fuel crisis

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) showed a modest improvement in business sentiment for the June‑July period. A net 8 % of firms surveyed expected general conditions to improve, rising to 12 % on a seasonally‑adjusted basis, compared with pessimism in the previous quarter. The uplift was attributed to falling global fuel prices after the United States and Iran signed a 60‑day Memorandum of Understanding guaranteeing ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz, easing the fuel‑price shock that had weighed on firms.

The institute warned that the recovery remains fragile. Ongoing volatility in the Middle East, renewed US‑Iran tensions and the approach of New Zealand’s November 7 general election are expected to keep firms cautious on hiring and investment. Inflation pressures are rising, with more than half of respondents reporting higher input costs and a similar share planning price increases. Capacity utilisation slipped to 90.8 %.

Overall, while confidence has edged higher, businesses remain alert to geopolitical uncertainty and domestic political factors that could dampen the tentative rebound.