NFL season sparks competition and regulatory concerns for prediction markets

The start of the NFL season has intensified competition within the prediction market industry. Analysts predict that wagers on prediction market platforms could reach approximately $35 billion this season. New competitors, such as the sports-only platform Novig, are entering the space to challenge established players like Kalshi and Polymarket. These new entrants are attempting to differentiate themselves by focusing strictly on sports, contrasting with rivals that allow wagering on political or global events.

Simultaneously, the NFL has expressed formal objections to these markets. Chief Compliance Officer Sabrina Perel has labeled certain prediction market offerings as “objectionable,” citing concerns over market manipulation. The league is particularly wary of contracts involving specific game details, such as field goal attempts, player injuries, or replay decisions, which could be influenced by insiders. While the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has expressed similar concerns regarding injury-related markets, no concrete regulatory actions have been taken yet.