NFL statistical analysis identifies potential 2026 regression candidates

Statistical analysis suggests several NFL teams may face regression in the 2026-27 season following successful 2025-26 campaigns. Analysts use metrics such as records in one-score games—defined as games decided by seven points or fewer—and the discrepancy between Expected Points Added (EPA) per play and actual scoring ranks to identify potential candidates for declining performance.

The Denver Broncos are highlighted as a primary candidate for regression. Despite finishing the 2025-26 season with the best overall record, the team recorded nine wins in games decided by seven points or less, including a 6-2 record in games decided by only one to three points. Because close game results often fluctuate year to year, such high win rates in tight contests are difficult to replicate.