Nigeria becomes key kerosene supplier for Europe amid Middle East tensions

Europe narrowly avoided a major kerosene shortage in mid-2026 despite tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and rising demand during the summer flight season. While the International Energy Agency (IEA) had warned of potential physical undersupply, the market stabilized through a rapid shift in supply chains.

As deliveries from the Middle East dropped to a ten-year low of 40,000 barrels per day in May due to maritime uncertainties, Nigeria emerged as a critical alternative supplier. The Dangote Group refinery in Lekki, Nigeria, significantly increased its output, delivering 466,000 tonnes of aviation fuel to European buyers in June. This volume surpassed shipments from the United States, which saw a sharp decline from record highs in April.

Despite this stabilization, analysts note that Europe remains structurally vulnerable due to its reliance on international trade flows and specific maritime corridors. The shift toward West African distillates highlights a changing global energy map as Europe seeks to mitigate risks associated with Middle Eastern instability.