OPEC June report shows production surge and Nigeria exceeds quota

The OPEC monthly oil market report for June 2026 shows a sharp rebound in global output. Crude production by OPEC members rose by about 3.05 million barrels per day (bpd) to roughly 22 million bpd, driven largely by the United Arab Emirates, which increased output by 1.64 million bpd. Production also rose in Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Gabon, Algeria and Nigeria, while Saudi Arabia fell by 99,000 bpd. The broader OPEC+ alliance, including non‑OPEC producers, reached an average of 36.28 million bpd, up about 3 million bpd from May.

OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil‑demand growth forecast to 105.94 million bpd (down 190,000 bpd from the previous estimate) but raised the 2027 outlook to 107.88 million bpd. The organisation kept its global GDP‑growth forecasts at 3.1 % for 2026 and 3.2 % for 2027.

Nigeria’s upstream regulator reported that crude oil production hit 1.56 million bpd in June, with condensates adding 0.18 million bpd for a combined 1.735 million bpd – 104 % of its OPEC quota and the highest strict‑crude output since April 2020 (a 74‑month high). Production gains were attributed to stable operations and the absence of major pipeline outages.

The OPEC report also updated Brazil’s liquid‑fuel outlook, raising the 2026 increase to 340,000 bpd while slightly trimming the 2027 growth target, but keeping average output around 4.7–4.8 million bpd. These forecasts cite offshore projects such as Búzios and Albacora Leste as key drivers.

Overall, the June data signal a rebound in supply amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with market prices reacting to the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the outlook for continued demand growth.