Nigeria faces extreme heat and drought risks from El Niño

Nigeria is facing significant climate risks due to a strengthening El Niño pattern, which is expected to influence global weather through early 2027. Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab have projected that the country could see an additional 31,400 heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 if current forecasts materialize.

Climate experts, including Dr. Deborah Ishaku of Gombe State Polytechnic, warn that the phenomenon could lead to delayed rainfall, prolonged dry spells, and reduced water availability. These conditions pose a severe threat to food security, particularly in regions like Gombe State where communities rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture. Key crops such as sorghum, millet, maize, and groundnuts are at risk of failure due to heat stress and irregular precipitation.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) have both confirmed the onset of a strong El Niño event. While the warming originates in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, its impact on air movement can cause drastic temperature and rainfall shifts in West Africa.