Nigeria faces projected 31,400 heat-related deaths due to El Niño

Nigeria is facing a significant public health threat as an exceptionally strong El Niño climate pattern is projected to cause 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027. According to data from the Climate Impact Lab, these figures represent projected increases above historical mortality averages rather than confirmed fatalities.

The most intense period of mortality is expected between December 2026 and February 2027, accounting for approximately 15,400 of the projected deaths. The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed the establishment of the El Niño pattern, while the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggests a strong to very strong event could persist through the first quarter of 2027.

Health experts warn that the surge in temperatures will disproportionately affect children, the elderly, and those with pre-existing respiratory or cardiovascular conditions. Beyond direct physiological risks like heatstroke and dehydration, the extreme heat is expected to strain Nigeria’s healthcare infrastructure and reduce labor productivity, particularly in the agricultural and construction sectors. Additionally, increased demand for cooling may place further pressure on the national electricity grid.