Nigeria targets OPEC production goals amid oil theft recovery

Nigeria is working toward an OPEC production target of 1.5 million barrels per day and above following a period of systemic collapse in its oil sector. Between 2019 and 2023, the nation faced industrial-scale economic losses driven by organized crime syndicates, illegal refining cartels, and deliberate sabotage across the Niger Delta.

The financial impact of this theft was severe. In 2021, the NNPC lost approximately $7.2 billion in crude oil, with daily theft rates peaking between 102,900 and 200,000 barrels per day. By 2022, financial losses escalated to $22.4 billion.

Critical infrastructure was heavily compromised. The Trans-Niger Pipeline (TNP), a 180,000-bpd asset operated by the Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC), was found with between 150 and 300 illegal hot-tap connection points, leading to prolonged shutdowns and operational instability.