NOAA predicts below‑normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has lowered its Atlantic hurricane‑season outlook for 2026, forecasting 7‑13 named storms, of which 2‑6 could become hurricanes and 0‑2 reach major‑hurricane strength. The agency now assigns a 75% chance of below‑normal activity, up from 55% in its May forecast, citing a strengthening El Niño that increases wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic.

Two named storms have formed so far – Tropical Storm Arthur, which produced record rainfall and tornadoes in the Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Bertha, which made landfall in Louisiana. NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham warned that inland flooding remains a major hazard, saying, “It’s important to prepare for every storm that’s projected to impact your area, even if it never reaches hurricane strength.” Lead forecaster Matt Rosencrans noted that the current El Niño is becoming the dominant factor in the season’s activity.

While Atlantic activity is expected to be subdued, NOAA expects the Eastern Pacific basin to see above‑average storm numbers because the same El Niño conditions favor tropical development there.