NOAA predicts below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, issues preparedness guide for Black families

The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and will run through November 30. NOAA’s seasonal outlook forecasts a 55% chance of a below‑normal season, 35% chance of near‑normal activity and a 10% chance of an above‑normal season. Forecasters expect between eight and 14 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes and one to three may reach major‑hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher). NOAA cites a developing strong El Niño as a factor that typically increases wind shear in the Atlantic, suppressing storm formation, though uncertainty remains.

Ken Graham, NOAA’s National Weather Service Director, cautioned: “It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.” The agency advises families—particularly Black households, who may face disproportionate impacts—to verify whether they live in an evacuation zone, assemble emergency kits with water, food, medication, flashlights and important documents, and stay informed through local emergency‑management resources.

The guidance emphasizes that even with a forecasted lower number of storms, preparedness remains essential to protect lives and property throughout the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.