North Carolina Senate race: Roy Cooper leads in polls and prediction markets

Recent polling and prediction market data indicate a significant advantage for Democratic candidate Roy Cooper in the North Carolina Senate race. An AARP survey shows Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley by 11 percentage points, with 53% to 42% among likely voters. This margin is reflected in prediction markets, where Cooper is trading at 94.5% on Kalshi and 96% on Polymarket.

While Cooper maintains a strong lead among younger voters, Whatley holds a six-point advantage among voters aged 50 and older. Other surveys, including one from Elon University, have also placed Cooper ahead of Whatley.

Separate polling from the Carolina Journal suggests that while Democratic candidates may hold an edge in voter preference, there is widespread support for fiscal restraints. Approximately 66.9% of likely voters support a constitutional amendment to cap the state income tax rate at 3.5%, and 65.6% favor limits on local property tax increases.