Norwegian oil and gas production faces potential decline through 2050

Reports indicate that oil and gas production on the Norwegian continental shelf faces a significant potential decline through 2050. According to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s Resource Report 2026, production is expected to reach a plateau through approximately 2027 before declining, as large-scale developments like the Johan Sverdrup field conclude and new discoveries remain relatively small.

The Directorate outlines three scenarios for production levels by 2050. In a high-production scenario, output could remain at roughly two-thirds of current levels. However, in a low-production scenario, output could drop to nearly zero. Maintaining higher production levels would require sustained exploration, technological investment, and a robust willingness to invest.

Complementing these findings, the KonKraft report ‘Utsikt: Norsk sokkel mot 2050’ warns that production could fall by 67 percent by 2050 if current policies continue. Industry leaders, including representatives from Norsk Industri and Offshore Norge, emphasize that predictable regulatory frameworks and increased exploration—particularly in the underexplored Barents Sea—are essential to maintain Norway’s role as a reliable energy supplier to Europe and to protect jobs within the offshore supply industry.