OECD report warns tourism growth faces geopolitical and climate risks

International tourism in OECD countries reached a record 847 million arrivals in 2025, a 3.4 % increase over the previous year, according to the OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2026 report. The organisation cautioned that the sector’s future growth will be constrained by rising geopolitical tensions – notably the Middle‑East conflict that has disrupted travel routes and raised costs – and by increasing climate‑related disruptions such as extreme heat, wildfires and cyclones.

Travelers are becoming more price‑sensitive, favoring familiar, lower‑cost destinations, shorter stays and budget‑friendly transport. Four economies posted double‑digit gains in inbound tourists in 2024‑25: Finland (+16.5 %), Japan (+15.8 %), South Korea (+15.7 %) and Norway (+12.5 %). By contrast, the United States saw a 5.5 % decline, while Ireland, Germany and Canada each fell by less than 1 %. Israel’s inbound traffic remained 70.8 % below pre‑crisis levels due to the ongoing Middle‑East conflict.

OECD Secretary‑General Mathias Cormann warned that “tourism continues to grow, generating business opportunities, jobs and tax revenues across the OECD,” and urged governments and businesses to strengthen crisis preparedness, improve destination management and adapt to evolving geopolitical, economic and climate risks to sustain long‑term benefits.