Oil prices could hit $200 amid Middle East energy risks

An analysis published in Foreign Affairs warns that oil prices could surge to between $150 and $200 per barrel if ongoing tensions in the Middle East lead to further attacks on critical energy infrastructure. Such a price spike could trigger a widespread global recession, affecting fuel availability, electricity generation, transportation, and industrial activity.

Oil prices reportedly rose from the $70–$75 range in August to approximately $110 per barrel in September. While increased production outside the Gulf and the use of emergency reserves have helped mitigate some impact, analysts Richard Haass and Carolyn Kissane suggest that the global energy system's ability to absorb further shocks is diminishing.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a primary concern; prior to recent conflicts, approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products, along with one-fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas, passed through the waterway daily. The report emphasizes that Washington must find a sustainable solution to the ongoing cycle of military strikes and economic pressures to avoid a major energy crisis.