One Nation surges in Australian polls after Secret Harbour byelection

One Nation has seen a significant surge in recent Australian federal polling following a landslide victory by the party in the Secret Harbour byelection in Western Australia. In a YouGov poll conducted between September 1 and 8, One Nation’s primary vote rose four points to 30%, marking its highest primary vote in that poll and establishing a four-point lead over the Labor Party, which fell to 26%.

The Secret Harbour byelection saw Labor lose a seat it had held since 1989 to One Nation. Analysts suggest voter concerns regarding the housing shortage, high migration, and the cost of living contributed to the shift. While Prime Minister Anthony Albanese attributed the rise of right-wing populism to misinformation and divisive politics, other officials pointed to social media algorithms as a factor in weaponizing public anger.

In the Morgan poll, One Nation’s primary vote increased by three points, though Labor maintained a narrow 0.5-point lead in primary votes. The Coalition’s primary vote remains near record lows, while Labor’s primary vote has matched recent lows.