OPEC+ Plans Further Output Increase Amid Production Gaps and Shipping Constraints

OPEC+ will raise its oil production target again despite ongoing shortfalls in actual output. At a meeting of eight key producers scheduled for 2 August, the alliance is expected to add another 188,000 barrels per day to the combined September quota, matching previous monthly increases.

Actual production has fallen to roughly 36.3 million bpd in June, down from the 43 million bpd level before the February war, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea remains disrupted by attacks. These logistical constraints have limited physical deliveries, prompting Saudi Arabia to shift much of its crude exports to the Red Sea. Brent crude briefly topped $100 a barrel after Houthi attacks on Saudi‑linked tankers raised fresh concerns.

If approved, the new target will complete the rollback of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cut adopted in 2023, following the United Arab Emirates’ recent exit from OPEC. The increase is intended to replace lost barrels once export routes become reliable again.