OPEC+ tensions and Middle East conflicts threaten oil prices and global energy security

Analysts warn that oil prices could surge as summer demand rises and OPEC+ decisions meet fragile global inventories. The risk of a sharp price increase is heightened by geopolitical strains in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el‑Mandeb, which could disrupt key maritime oil and gas routes.

International Energy Agency director Fatih Birol emphasized that, despite existing safety buffers such as strategic reserves and increased exports from Gulf states, the United States, Brazil, Venezuela, Kazakhstan and reduced Chinese imports, markets remain vulnerable. The IEA has already released about 290 million barrels of its authorized 400 million‑barrel drawdown, underscoring continued vigilance over energy security.