OPEC+ to raise oil production quotas as Middle East war disrupts supply

The OPEC+ cartel, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is expected to increase its oil output by adding roughly 188,000 barrels per day to September quotas. The move comes as the ongoing Middle East conflict has severely constrained shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, creating what the International Energy Agency called the largest oil supply disruption in history.

An online meeting of OPEC+ members on 2 August is set to confirm the increase, marking the culmination of a gradual return to higher production after years of cuts. While some members face reduced capacity, the group aims to offset the Gulf output shortfall caused by the war and related maritime risks in the Red Sea.

Market participants have responded by lowering the probability of crude reaching a new all‑time high by the end of September, though expectations for a price rise by year‑end remain higher.