Operation Metro Surge impacts Minnesota jobs and school funding

Operation Metro Surge, a federal immigration enforcement initiative, has led to significant economic and educational shifts in Minnesota. A report from the Minnesota Budget Project and the Immigration Research Initiative estimated that the peak of the ICE surge between December 2025 and February 2026 may have cost the state approximately 32,000 jobs. While economist Tyler Schipper of the University of St. Thomas noted that the exact figure may be lower—potentially in the 10,000 to 20,000 range—he stated the data is directionally consistent with observed trends.

In St. Paul, the crackdown has resulted in a decline in student enrollment. More than 500 English learner students did not return to school this fall, a trend attributed to families returning to their home countries. Because school district funding is tied to enrollment numbers, St. Paul faces a projected budget shortfall of $4.9 million this school year, which could lead to teacher layoffs.