Opportunity Party surges to 8% in New Zealand polls

The latest 1News Verian poll indicates a significant shift in New Zealand’s political landscape, with the Opportunity Party surging to 8% and clearing the 5% parliamentary threshold. This rise places the newcomer neck-and-neck with New Zealand First, which saw its support drop to 8%.

The polling results suggest a highly fragmented Parliament for the 2026 election. Labour leads at 30%, followed closely by National at 29%. The Green Party stands at 12%, ACT at 9%, and Te Pāti Māori at 1%. Because neither the major left-leaning nor right-leaning blocs hold a clear majority, the Opportunity Party is positioned as a potential kingmaker in future coalition negotiations.

This fragmentation coincides with internal developments within the National Party. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon survived a caucus confidence vote following leadership challenges, though his preferred prime minister rating has declined. The results suggest that the upcoming election may be decided by the influence of smaller parties rather than the traditional dominance of the two major parties.