Oracle shares tumble 66% as AI hype fades and debt concerns mount

Oracle Corp. was upgraded to a Buy rating after its leadership in sovereign, air‑gapped AI infrastructure and the rollout of native agentic ERP applications were highlighted. Analysts noted the company’s dual moat of long‑term government contracts and embedded AI, which could sustain a high valuation despite near‑term balance‑sheet strain.

However, the stock has fallen roughly 66% from its 2025 peak, erasing about $630 billion of market value. Technical analysis places current support between $100 and $125, with a key level near $118. Risks include $273 billion of off‑balance‑sheet debt, a $42 billion free‑cash‑flow deficit, credit downgrades, and heavy exposure to OpenAI.

The price‑action suggests the AI‑driven re‑rating is being reassessed, and the market is pricing in a lower‑margin, higher‑debt environment for Oracle.