Pablo Hernández de Cos emerges as favorite for ECB presidency

Pablo Hernández de Cos, the current Director General of the Bank for International Settlements, has emerged as the preferred candidate to succeed Christine Lagarde as President of the European Central Bank (ECB). According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, Hernández de Cos is favored by 12 respondents, leading ahead of Dutch official Klaas Knot, who received nine votes.

While Lagarde’s term officially ends in October 2027, two-thirds of surveyed economists anticipate her departure as early as April 2027, with some suggesting January. This potential leadership transition is complicated by other upcoming vacancies, including German Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, who is expected to join the IMF in early 2027, and Chief Economist Philip Lane, whose term ends in May 2027.

Environmental advocates have expressed concern that the leadership shuffle could stall the ECB’s commitment to green finance. Specifically, the potential election of Klaas Knot could lead to the departure of Frank Elderson, a key climate ally on the Executive Board, due to the tradition of limiting representation per member state. Critics warn that a shift in leadership might result in a retreat from active climate-related interventions in favor of deregulation and economic growth.