Pakistan to import one million tons of wheat amid production drop

Pakistan is preparing to import one million metric tons of wheat to address a projected production shortfall for the 2025-26 season. Wheat output is expected to drop to 28.42 million metric tons from 31.4 million metric tons last year, driven by a severe dry spell that saw rainfall in early 2025 fall 39% below average.

The crisis is compounded by a contraction in cultivation area from 10.37 million to 9.1 million hectares and systemic procurement issues. Analysts have noted discrepancies in provincial records, with allegations that approximately 4.5 million tons of wheat are unaccounted for in Punjab. The shift of procurement responsibilities to the private sector has faced hurdles, as private entities struggle to secure the necessary credit lines previously managed by the government.

The emergency imports are estimated to cost the national treasury between $350 million and $400 million, occurring alongside International Monetary Fund mandates to improve fiscal transparency and deregulate agricultural pricing.