Banxico keeps benchmark interest rate at 6.5%
Mexico’s central bank, Banco de México (Banxico), voted unanimously to keep its benchmark interbank interest rate unchanged at 6.50%. The decision follows a slowdown in headline inflation, which fell to 3.10% between the first half of June and the first half of July 2026, while core inflation dropped to 3.94% in the same period. Analysts expect the pause to continue, with a Reuters poll of 35 economists forecasting the rate will stay at 6.5% through 2026 and 2027; only one analyst projected a 25‑basis‑point cut. A separate Reuters poll predicted annual headline inflation could fall to about 3.12% in July, its lowest level since May 2020, and core inflation to 3.94%, bringing inflation nearer to Banxico’s 3% target. The bank cited ongoing international uncertainties, including Middle‑East conflicts and U.S. monetary policy, as factors influencing its stance.
Entities: Banco Central del Paraguay (BCP) · Banco de México · Banco de México (Banxico) · Banxico Governing Board · Barclays · Castilla‑La Mancha · Galicia · INEGI · Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) · Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI) · Madrid · Mexican peso
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [● 3 SOURCES] Banxico is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at 6.5% in the upcoming decision. (34 of 35 analysts surveyed)
- [● 3 SOURCES] Headline inflation eased in the first half of July to its lowest level in over five years, near the midpoint of Banxico's 3% target range. (inflation data)
- [● 3 SOURCES] 26 analysts project the rate holding at 6.5% through the end of 2027. (survey of analysts)
- [● 3 SOURCES] GDP grew 1.5% in the second quarter after contracting in the first quarter. (national accounts data)
- [● 3 SOURCES] The median forecast from 28 analysts sees the rate holding at 6.5% through the end of 2026. (median forecast of 28 analysts)
- [● 3 SOURCES] Analysts raised their 2026 growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.1%. (analyst forecasts)
- [● 3 SOURCES] One analyst expects a 25‑basis‑point cut to the benchmark rate. (poll of analysts)
- [● 3 SOURCES] Banxico kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5%. (Banxico decision)
- [● 2 SOURCES] Annual headline inflation likely fell to 3.12% in July 2026, the lowest since May 2020. (Reuters poll)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Banxico expects inflation to reach its 3% target by the end of 2027. (Banxico statement)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Headline inflation fell to 3.10% between the first half of June and the first half of July 2026. (Banxico report)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Core inflation fell to 3.94% in the same period. (Banxico report)