Pemex debt projected to fall to $155 billion by 2028

Moody’s predicts that Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) will reduce its total obligations from $179 billion in 2025 to approximately $155 billion by 2028. This projected $24 billion reduction is expected to be driven by continuous financial support from the Mexican government.

While the reduction in debt is anticipated to improve the credit indicators of Mexico’s non-financial and infrastructure sectors, Pemex remains a significant factor in the country's overall debt load. The company continues to face structural challenges, including negative free cash flow and operational weaknesses in refining.

Separately, technical concerns have been raised regarding the Dos Bocas refinery. The facility was originally designed to process 100% Maya crude, but current national production consists largely of different heavy crude types from declining fields. This mismatch between infrastructure design and available crude profiles may lead to operational instability, such as asphaltene precipitation and equipment blockages, potentially increasing the risk of unscheduled shutdowns.