Pemex faces potential losses from refining instead of exporting crude

Pemex faces a significant opportunity cost by prioritizing domestic refining over crude oil exports. According to projections from México Evalúa, based on the Economic Package assumptions, the difference between exporting crude and refining it in Mexico is expected to reach 17.5 dollars per barrel by 2027. This gap represents a potential loss of 137 billion pesos annually.

In 2025, refining a barrel yielded a rent of 26.2 dollars, whereas exporting it as crude provided 47.7 dollars, creating a 21.5 dollar per barrel difference and a total opportunity cost of 153 billion pesos for the year. The analysis suggests that for every 100,000 barrels of daily refining capacity that is retired because it does not cover its costs, Pemex could gain approximately 7.9 billion pesos per year by exporting the freed crude.

México Evalúa proposes two paths to recover these losses: improving the National Refining System to match the efficiency and utilization of a reference refinery, such as Pemex’s Deer Park, or ceasing the refining of crude that is more valuable when exported and retiring the corresponding capacity.