Pemex poses financial risk to Mexico, Moody's warns

Moody's Ratings has identified Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) as a persistent risk to Mexico's national finances. According to Roxana Muñoz, senior vice president at Moody's, the state-owned oil company may require federal government support for the next three to five years to meet its debt obligations.

Moody's estimates that Pemex could need an average of approximately $10 billion annually to cover debt maturities if it does not significantly increase its financing. This projection contrasts with the Mexican government's stance that the company would no longer require transfers from the Ministry of Finance starting in 2027. However, the 2027 economic package already includes 81 billion pesos (roughly $4.56 billion) in support via the Ministry of Energy.

The analysis also highlights inefficiencies in Mexico's refining strategy. While the government aims to reduce fuel imports by increasing domestic refining, current operations are costly. Mexican refineries are reportedly operating at 50% capacity with low efficiency, resulting in a $5 billion deficit because refining domestically is more expensive than importing petroleum derivatives.

As of the first half of 2026, Pemex's financial debt stood at 1.353 trillion pesos (approximately $76.27 billion). While this represents a significant reduction from 2018 levels, the company's low investment-grade rating forces the federal government to act as a guarantor through the sale of Mexican bonds, increasing national indebtedness.