Permafrost thawing could increase carbon emissions by 202%

A study published in Nature indicates that permafrost thawing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions is occurring at an unprecedented rate, potentially increasing carbon emissions by 202%. This process releases significant amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) as microorganisms decompose previously frozen organic matter.

Experts warn that current climate models may underestimate these risks because they do not fully account for abrupt thawing and the impact of increasingly intense wildfires. Wildfires accelerate the process, with a significant portion of emissions coming from underground organic material burned during these events.

This phenomenon creates a positive feedback loop where rising temperatures cause more thawing, which in turn releases more greenhouse gases, further driving global warming. Such developments may complicate efforts to meet the goals established by the Paris Agreement. To address these modeling gaps, researchers have developed a new climate model called Oscar, which integrates both gradual and abrupt thawing processes.