Platinum market forecast shifts to surplus as demand weakens

The global platinum market is projected to experience a shift in supply dynamics, with the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasting a 265,000-ounce surplus in 2026. This marks a significant reversal from the WPIC’s previous forecast of a 297,000-ounce deficit. This change is primarily attributed to weakening demand rather than increased mine production.

Demand revisions are driven by a sharp decline in investment demand and jewelry consumption, particularly in China. The WPIC has cut its global platinum demand forecast to 7.09 million ounces, an 18% decrease from the previous year. While the first half of the year saw a surplus of 548,000 ounces due to heavy exchange-traded fund (ETF) selling and outflows, analysts suggest the market could swing back into a deficit in the second half of the year as ETF selling eases.

Other industry organizations, including Johnson Matthey, Heraeus Precious Metals, and SFA Oxford, have also noted lower demand from the automotive, jewelry, and industrial sectors, though some still anticipate the market will end the year in deficit.