Poland expands gas capacity while debating biometan market models

Global investment in natural‑gas projects is set to reach $330 billion in 2026, the highest level in a decade. In line with this trend, Poland’s gas‑fired power capacity already exceeds 6 GW and another 6.9 GW is under construction, prompting analysts to warn of a possible overshoot that could lock the country into imported fuel and clash with climate‑neutrality goals.

At the same time, Poland is preparing a biometan market. It is weighing two EU examples: Italy’s mature system of more than 140 plants supported by €1.73 bn of state subsidies, and Spain’s €4.8 bn market that grew without systemic public funding. Polish investors, led by firms such as Biorig, aim to build about 20 biometan installations worth €350 m, but face fragmented agriculture (around 1.3 million farms), the risk of a “substrate war” over feedstock, and the need for long‑term, bankable off‑take contracts to secure financing.