Poland outlines 2027 budget shifts and inflation forecasts

The Polish government has adopted the 2027 state budget draft, which includes significant changes to the financing structure of the State Fund for Rehabilitation of Disabled People (PFRON). While PFRON's expenditures are expected to remain around 10.2 billion PLN, the state subsidy is set to decrease significantly, placing a greater reliance on mandatory contributions from employers.

Key allocations for PFRON in 2027 include over 4 billion PLN for wage subsidies for employees with disabilities, 2.35 billion PLN for redistributive transfers to local governments, and 1.271 billion PLN for commissioned tasks.

Separately, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) released its monetary policy assumptions for 2027. The Council anticipates a temporary rise in inflation during the second half of 2026 due to fuel market conditions and the withdrawal of protective programs. However, average annual inflation in 2027 is projected to be lower than in 2026 as cost pressures ease and global commodity markets normalize. GDP growth is expected to slow in 2027, influenced by lower investment dynamics and a slowdown in wage growth, despite a favorable labor market with low unemployment.