Polish political landscape shifts as Confederation gains support and PiS faces internal split

United Surveys‑IBRiS polls released in July 2026 show Koalicja Obywatelska at 28.6 % and Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) at 23 %, while the two Confederation formations – Wolność i Niepodległość (15.7 %) and Korony Polskiej (10.2 %) – together command about 26 %, overtaking PiS for the first time. Analysts note that the surge of the far‑right bloc could reshape coalition calculations ahead of the 2027 parliamentary election.

Within PiS, the party’s presidium has issued an ultimatum ordering members to leave any independent political associations. The move targets Mateusz Morawiecki’s “Rozwój Plus” and other groups; Morawiecki posted that he will not step down, fueling speculation of a looming split in the ruling party.

Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform (KO) held a closed‑door meeting in Warsaw, where he warned of rising populism, growing anti‑Ukrainian sentiment and the need for stronger media engagement ahead of the September elections. The discussion also touched on potential reforms and the risk of teacher protests.

The government’s education ministry announced plans to dissolve the state‑run Children’s Holiday Homes, a measure criticised by opposition figures as a cut that will disproportionately affect disadvantaged children.

Together, the polling trends, intra‑party tensions and policy disputes indicate a volatile political environment in Poland as parties vie for voter support and internal cohesion.