Poland faces €11.4 billion loss as Chinese industrial expansion widens trade deficit

Poland’s trade balance with China shows a sharp and growing deficit. Official GUS data recorded imports worth 232.4 billion zloty in 2025 against exports of only 13.2 billion zloty, a gap of about €11.4 billion for the year. The first quarter of 2026 already saw a 60 billion‑zloty shortfall.

A joint report by the Polish Confederation of Employers and the Centre for Eastern Studies warns that the Chinese‑driven “industrial shock 2.0” is draining value added across the EU, amounting to €87 billion in 2025. Poland alone is estimated to lose €11.4 billion and see up to 45 000 jobs jeopardised, especially in battery production, automotive components, appliances and steel. The report cites daily losses of 500 industrial jobs in the EU.

Chinese automotive presence is rising fast: Chinese brands captured 14.9 % of Poland’s new‑car market in June and 8.1 % of the EU market, prompting used‑car dealers to devise an “anti‑Chinese” stock strategy focused on diesel‑range, sport‑oriented and hybrid models.

European policymakers are responding with proposals to boost competitiveness – deregulation, cheaper energy for industry, and a new digital‑energy strategy that couples AI and smart grids with faster adoption of renewable sources. These measures aim to offset the competitive disadvantage created by heavily subsidised Chinese production.