Poland's inflation forecast steadies while euro adoption criteria remain unmet

A recent NBP macroeconomic survey projects Poland’s annual inflation to gradually decline, reaching around 3 % by 2026 with typical scenarios ranging from 2.7 % to 3.5 %. The probability of staying within the 1.5 %–3.5 % band is estimated at 70 %. At the same time, the survey foresees a slowdown in GDP growth: 3.5 % in 2026, 3 % in 2027 and 2.8 % in 2028, still above the EU average. The reference interest rate is expected to stay near 3.66 % with only limited scope for cuts, while unemployment is projected to remain stable around 5.7‑5.8 %.

Separately, the European Commission’s 2026 convergence report concludes that Poland does not meet any of the Maastricht criteria for euro entry. Deficit forecasts rise from 3.4 % of GDP in 2022 to 7.3 % in 2025, breaching the 3 % limit, and public debt is projected to grow from 59.7 % to 68.3 % of GDP by 2027. Inflation averaged 2.9 % in the year to May 2026, above the 2.7 % reference, and long‑term interest rates sit at 5.4 % versus the 5.1 % ceiling. Moreover, the złoty is not yet participating in the ERM II mechanism, and national legislation on central‑bank independence remains out of line with EU rules. As the Commission put it, “no member state currently fulfills all the criteria for joining the euro”.