Polish banking sector profits projected to decline in 2026

The Polish banking sector is projected to see a decline in net profits in 2026, reaching an estimated 40.9 billion PLN. This represents a 16.8 percent decrease compared to the record results of 2025. According to a report by the Polish Bank Association, the decline is primarily attributed to fiscal changes, specifically an increase in the effective CIT tax rate from 19 percent to 30 percent.

Future profitability remains highly dependent on the decisions of the Monetary Policy Council regarding interest rates. Under a base scenario involving a 50 basis point rate cut, net profits could reach 43.7 billion PLN. However, a deeper 100 basis point cut could cause profits to drop to 38.8 billion PLN. Conversely, if rates remain stable, profits could rise to 48.2 billion PLN.

Tadeusz Białek, President of the Polish Bank Association, noted that rising inflation—which reached 3.4 percent in August 2026—and geopolitical factors may pressure the Monetary Policy Council to implement a small, one-time interest rate hike of 0.25 percentage points. Additionally, the introduction of Personal Investment Accounts (OKI) in 2027 is expected to include bank deposits, a move supported by the banking sector.