Polish banks forecast 13% profit rise in Q2 2026 amid higher taxes and falling loan‑loss provisions

Analysts expect the nine largest listed banks in Poland to record a combined net profit of about 9.15 billion PLN in the second quarter of 2026, roughly 13% higher than in Q1 and 1.5% lower year‑on‑year. Interest income is projected at 21.7 billion PLN, a modest 0.3% rise from the previous quarter but a 2.3% decline versus the same period last year. The sector’s tax burden has risen sharply after the corporate income‑tax rate for commercial banks increased from 19% to 30%, with banks paying 10.1 billion PLN in income tax in the January‑May period compared with 6.8 billion PLN a year earlier.

The Bank of Poland’s reference rate fell to 3.75% in April 2026, easing pressure on profitability. Loan portfolios continue to expand, with household credit up 7.4% and business credit up nearly 10% year‑on‑year. Costs related to Swiss‑franc loans have dropped to just over 1 billion PLN from 3.1 billion PLN a year ago, easing the “frank saga.”

On the same day, markets will watch the Bank of England’s rate decision, US and European GDP releases, and earnings reports from Erste Bank Polska, Pekao, ING BSK, Żabka and other listed firms.