Polish industrial PMI plunges to 46.1 in June, sparking market concerns

Poland’s purchasing managers' index for the industrial sector fell to 46.1 points in June, the lowest level in 11 months and the 14th consecutive month below the 50‑point growth threshold. The decline was driven by the sharpest drop in new orders in a year, a continued contraction in export orders, and inventories rising at the fastest pace in 21 months. The survey, covering just over 200 firms (about 1.2% of Poland’s manufacturing base), may under‑represent large defence, energy and mining companies that account for roughly 15‑20% of output.

Despite the PMI slowdown, official GUS data show industrial production rising 4.1% year‑on‑year in May, indicating a divergence between survey sentiment and hard output numbers. Analysts note that the data‑collection period overlapped the June 17 US‑Iran cease‑fire agreement, which may have tempered oil price‑related responses. Cost pressures appear to be easing, with production costs and finished‑goods prices growing at the slowest rate in three months.

The weaker PMI contributed to a fall in the EUR/PLN exchange rate, which slipped below 4.30. At the same time, the government’s fuel‑tax cut programme (CPN) ended, pushing gasoline prices up about 15% and lifting near‑term inflation expectations by roughly 0.7‑0.8 percentage points.