Polish poll shows Koalicja Obywatelska ahead despite South Hospital scandal

An IBRiS poll conducted on July 2‑3 found Koalicja Obywatelska (KO) at 29.1 % support, enough for a majority of seats if elections were held today. Law and Justice (PiS) slipped to 23.2 %, while the far‑right Confederation rose to 13.3 %. Smaller parties such as the Confederation of the Polish Crown (11 %) and the Left (8.4 %) remained below the parliamentary threshold.

The poll was taken after a scandal broke at Warsaw’s South Hospital, where former KO councilor Dawid Kacprzyk was accused of operating a “VIP lounge” for party politicians and subsequently left the party. The incident also prompted the resignations of two Warsaw deputy mayors. Analysts said the scandal had little effect on KO’s standing, while PiS and the Confederation showed modest shifts within statistical margins.

The results suggest KO retains a lead over PiS, but both major parties face entrenched voter bases and limited margins for change ahead of the upcoming election.