Polish researchers study impact of mine closures and climate change on river flows

Scientists from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW-PIB) and AGH University of Science and Technology have released a study examining how the planned closure of coal mines in Upper Silesia will affect river systems. The research, published in the Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, focused on 17 mines in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin scheduled to close by 2049.

The study analyzed the impact on the upper Vistula river system, specifically the Przemsza river, by combining hydrological modeling with climate projections and machine learning. The findings indicate that the reduction in mine water discharge, coupled with climate change, could significantly alter hydrological regimes.

Results suggest that while climate change might increase flows during spring and summer, it may decrease them in autumn. The combined effect of mine closures and climate shifts could reduce low monthly flows by up to 35% in the Przemsza and 15% in the Vistula. In the Przemsza, the probability of flows falling below the historical 10th percentile could increase sixfold in November, presenting new challenges for water resource management and ecosystem protection.