Polish retail sector faces third consecutive quarterly decline

The Polish retail sector is experiencing a continuous decline, according to the EFL Barometer for the third quarter of 2026. The sub-index fell to 48.1 points, marking the third consecutive quarterly drop and the lowest level since the second quarter of 2025. This downturn is driven largely by weakening sales forecasts, with only 13% of retail companies expecting an increase in turnover, down from 18% in the previous quarter.

Investment sentiment remains mixed. While 14% of entrepreneurs plan to increase spending, 37% expect to reduce investments. Despite positive consumer data from recent months, retail businesses maintain a cautious outlook for the coming months.

Separately, the Bureau of Investment and Economic Cycles (BIEC) reported that the Future Inflation Index rose slightly to 86.9 points in August 2026, up from 86.5 points in July. Experts suggest this minor increase does not threaten long-term price stability. Inflation expectations among consumers and manufacturing managers remain relatively low. Notably, larger companies show a lower tendency to raise prices compared to smaller ones, which helps mitigate broader inflationary trends.