Polish Survey Shows Majority Fear Russian Military Provocation

A poll commissioned by Radio ZET and carried out by the Institute of Market and Social Research (IBRiS) on 24‑25 July 2026 found that about 60 % of Poles are worried about a possible armed provocation by Russia. The telephone CATI survey interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 adults.

Concern was highest among voters of the Civic Coalition (62 %), followed by supporters of Law and Justice (59 %) and the Third Way (58 %). Around half of Confederation voters (52 %) expressed fear, while 48 % considered the scenario unlikely. The poll also noted that fear cuts across gender lines, with 69 % of men and 50 % of women expressing concern.

The results were released as Poland debated its security response after a Russian missile breached Polish airspace over the Lublin region. The President’s Office said no National Security Council meeting would be convened, but President Karol Nawrocki has asked the government for a detailed report on the incident.