Pollster John McLaughlin warns of inaccurate 2026 midterm polls

Pollster John McLaughlin has warned that current polling for the 2026 midterm elections may be misleading and does not accurately reflect the electorate. Speaking on the “Just The News, No Noise” program, McLaughlin noted that while many seats in both the House and Senate are currently toss-ups, some surveys appear to be skewed.

McLaughlin highlighted potential issues with sample sizes, noting a New York poll where Republicans comprised only 22% of respondents despite making up 30% of voters in the state's previous gubernatorial race. He also cited historical inaccuracies in polling, such as the 2016 presidential election and the 2024 Texas results, where polling failed to predict actual outcomes.

Regarding the upcoming contests, McLaughlin identified eight Senate races as toss-ups and noted that over 70 House seats are in play, with at least 17 being pure toss-ups. He cautioned that while early voting often favors Democrats, Republicans historically show strength on Election Day.